This year the underlying idea behind Union Budget was to allow the prevailing atmosphere of Growth & Capital Expenditure (Capex ) to continue, at the cost of rising inflation. The Pandemic has played havoc with the Indian Economy, especially with people employed in the informal sector. The MSME Sector, one of the major sectors that generate employment in a big way has not yet been able to come out of the doldrums. Stimulus in the form of reduction in interest rates has not been able to make any major difference in the economy, so far except in the Real Estate sector, but it is expected that the proposed Capital Expenditure will trigger demand in other sectors as well in the days to come.
RBI has also supported the line of the Central Govt. & refrained from making any change in the monetary policy, though inflation is on the higher side & may go up further if the Crude prices continue to rise. The tightening of the money supply by The Fed is creating ripples in the Indian Stock Market, so any change in the Monetary Policy of RBI could have affected the Indian Stock Market further & could have jeopardized the forthcoming IPO of LIC. The forthcoming IPO of LIC is very crucial for the Central Govt. , since Gov., is now skeptical about disinvestment or privatization & has already brought down its disinvestment target for FY22-23.
Is the Change in the tone & tenure of the Modi Govt. can largely be attributed to its failure to push the Farm Reform Laws & the resistance being faced by the BJP in the assembly election of Uttar Pradesh, the largest & most populous State of India & that sets the tone of politics for the rest of the country?
In a Democracy, ultimately everything boils down to Politics, so the result of assembly elections in the five States especially UP will be crucial for the Modi Govt.
Views expressed above are the author’s own.
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